UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort Preview & Results

 

Main Card (Pay-per-view):
205#: Jon Jones (17-1) vs. Vitor Belfort (21-10) wins by Top Wrist Lock/Americana in RD 4!
125#: Joseph Benavidez (16-3) vs. Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) wins by Split Decision!
185#: Michael Bisping (24-4) vs. Brian Stann (12-5) wins by Unanimous Decision!
205#: Matt Hamill (12-4) vs. Roger Hollett (13-4) wins by Unanimous Decision!
155#: Cub Swanson (18-5) vs. Charles Oliveira (16-2 1NC) wins by KO in RD1!

Preliminary Card (FX Channel):
205#: Igor Pokrajac (25-8) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (11-5 1NC) wins by Armbar in RD2!
155#: TJ Grant (19-5) vs. Evan Dunham (13-3) wins by Unanimous Decision!
170#: Sean Pierson (13-6) vs. Lance Benoist (6-2) wins by Unanimous Decision!
145#: Jimy Hettes (10-1) vs. Marcus Brimage (6-1) wins by Unanimous Decision!

Preliminary Card (Facebook):
170#: Seth Baczynski (17-6) vs. Simeon Thoresen (17-3-1) wins by Knock-Out in RD1!
135#: Mitch Gagnon (9-2) vs. Walel Watson (9-5) wins by Rear Naked Choke in RD1!
170#: Kyle Noke (20-6-1) vs. Charlie Brenneman (15-5) wins by Technical Knock-Out in RD1!

Ultimate Fighting Championship 152 takes place on Saturday, September 22, 2012 at the Air Canada Center in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Facebook Prelims start at 7 p.m. EST before switching to FX Channel for the rest of the prelims at 8 p.m. EST. PPV begins at 10 p.m. EST. To watch the FREE prelims on Facebook simply visit their Facebook page and “like.”

Jon Jones vs Vitor Belfort
I’ll skip all the drama and hoopla that led to this specific match-up. It’s been hashed and re-hashed a thousand times. The betting lines have been as steep as -925, or a 9 to 1 favorite for Jon Jones. This alludes to the fact that Vitor Belfort has been fighting in the UFC for as long as anyone. He is an “old” fighter, who’s greatest recent accomplishment was beating Rich Franklin almost exactly 3 years ago. Outside of this major win, almost every time he has stepped up to fight a top opponent he has lost. Many point out that he lacks mental fortitude. He comes out explosive, dangerous and exciting and when things don’t go his way within the first few minutes he simply fades. He stepped up twice against Couture and lost, stepped up to Sakuraba, Liddell, Ortiz, Overeem, Dan Henderson, and Anderson Silva and lost. This is not to place harsh criticism, but point out the reasoning behind the betting line. He has a track record of fading after a few minutes and losing his big fights. It’s not something that is a given fact, as there are exceptions, but it is reliable enough that Vegas has placed odds at -925.

Talk about big fights – does it get bigger than fighting perhaps one of the greatest fighters in the sport’s history? One that has an 81% finish rate? Jones 6′ 4″ frame in a 205# body presents a serious problem for everyone. While “only” a JUCO wrestler he has proven that he has adapted his wrestling to MMA, almost more than any other wrestler, including those who are more accomplished. German Suplexes, Saltos, back arch throws, backstep tosses, and pretty much anything he wants, he does. He has demonstrated and improved striking with standing elbows, paying more attention to distance and measure, and has been vocal about wanting to get more KOs standing. He is young, motivated, and sees clearly he is on the path to becoming the sport’s greatest fighter.

This is a fight where Vitor needs to do what Vitor does: come out with all cannons firing, be fast, explosive, and get the fight over with as early as possible. Power never leaves and Belfort has it in spades. He can KO anyone in any weight class. If he fades in 3 round fights, he’ll never make it 5 rounds. He needs to end this fight ASAP. For Jones to win, he simply needs to not get pompous and arrogant and try to get flashy and fancy. Just execute his gameplan and he’ll have a finish in the second or third round. NBG Pick: Jones.

Joseph Benavidez vs Demetrious Johnson
The little guys are ALWAYS fun to watch and these two are exemplar examples of why. They are both busy, fast-paced, fighters who always put on an exciting show. Benavidez who has only ever lost to Dominick Cruz (2x) has string together four wins in a row. While a finisher early on in his career, at the top of the heap it gets more difficult to finish the best. He has finished 2 of his last four fights. He will have a very difficult time finishing “Might Mouse” Johnson and will need to be in the best shape of his life and execute the gameplan to a “T” to get one. His wrestling credentials will get plenty of use and should be part of his gameplan. While it won’t be easy, he needs to take Mighty Mouse down, keep him down, work to pass his guard to a superior position and work for a finish.

Demetrious Johnson moves so fast and at such a hectic pace that he looks like sped up film footage. He may be the fastest person in the sport today. Since moving down to Flyweight he has a draw and a win over the same fighter “Ian McCall.” He’ll be super motivated to get that championship belt. While not as accomplished of a wrestler, DJ did wrestle in high school. He will be giving up size and wrestling experience so his gameplan needs to revolve around keeping the fight standing and avoiding being taken down or kept down. This fight comes down to the wrestling factor: Can Benavidez take DJ down and keep him there? This is a championship fight, so as the fight goes on longer DJ will have a harder time fending off the takedowns. For this reason the NBG pick is: Benavidez.

Michael Bisping vs Brian Stann
In spite of having 16 fights in the UFC, Bisping has cemented his cash cow status by not only never having challenged for the belt, but has only fought a top ten fighter ONCE. The UFC built the British market on his shoulders and do not want him to go away. The one time he stepped up and fought a top ten opponent was Dan Henderson and his KO was one that is still discussed today. Bisping is slowly becoming aware that he is being protected by the UFC brass and knowing the brash, confident fighter he is, I don’t think it’s sitting well with him. Fighting Brian Stann is just the 17th fight where he is not fighting for the belt and not fighting a top ten opponent. It has gone past the point of being absurd now. The UFC needs to make him face top ten opponents IMMEDIATELY after this fight and point him towards a title shot.

Brian Stann is a big, strong, powerful fighter. He has one method or way to win: KO. He is new to wrestling and BJJ and it’s no secret that he will try to use his power and striking as he does in every fight. The problem is he will need to get near Bisping. One thing Bisping does well is utilize footwork and distance. Stann is going to have a hell of a time trying to catch Bisping, but what he needs to do to win is take a page from the Hendo fight and land a huge right hand….especially if Bisping stubbornly moves in the wrong direction into that right hand as he did in the Hendo fight. For Bisping to win, he’ll need to keep on his bicycle for a round or two, turn up the heat when the opportunities arise and he’ll be en route to winning a decision or even a TKO. Stann needs to come out super aggressive, let his hands go, wade through Bisping’s light punches, take a few to land just ONE. NBG pick: Bisping.

Matt Hamill vs Roger Hollett
Matt Hamill is coming out of retirement for this fight. He is also coming off of two losses…against Rampage Jackson and Alexander Gustafsson. The NCAA Div. III champ is young enough that a short retirement shouldn’t affect him too much. There are fighters who have taken longer injury time between fights. However, what will be questioned is his motivation. Does he have a passion for the sport? This is a TOUGH sport and if you lack the desire, you will fall by the wayside. Hamill is in a sense getting a “tune-up” fight. He should count his blessings, because while tune-up fights are a common gift in boxing they are extremely rare in MMA. Little is known of his opponent Roger Hollett. While he has an 85% finish rate he has not fought the best fighters in the world. This will either be a coming out fight for him or he will slide back into the ranks of the lesser known. Even with retirement and rust, Hamill has faced only top competition, and has the wrestling credentials therefore the NBG pick is: Hamill.

Cub Swanson vs Charles Oliveira
Cub Swanson has come a long way from his WEC days. Back then he lost the fights that mattered and he needed to: Jens Pulver, Jose Aldo, and Chad Mendes. When he came to the UFC and lost his first bought by Arm Triangle to Ricardo Lamas, things did not look good for Cub. They looked desperate. Cub dug down deep, made some changes, found his motivation and put together two very impressive TKO wins over George Roop and Ross Pearson. He certainly made a statement that he is back and fired up. He will need to not only maintain that fire, but stoke it against his opponent Charles Oliveira.

While Oliveira started out as a strike and strung together TKO wins, he then seemed to switch gears and put together nine submissions throughout subsequent bouts. Charles does everything, but wrestle, very well. He can KO you or submit you in a flash. Have any doubt? Only ONE person he has beaten has gone to a decision and he has a 94% finish rate. His two most notable wins are a Rear Naked Choke over Efrain Escudero and a Guillotine Choke on Jonathan Brookins. Having said these things, Cub has faced far better opposition and has far more experience in the big leagues.

This fight is really a toss-up. Does Cub’s experience win the day or does Oliveira bring his finish rate up to the big leagues. Cub would be better suited to avoid the ground to win this fight. I am not sure Oliveira’s wrestling is good enough to take Cub down and keep him there. I expect a barnburner of a striking match where the first one to unleash his power first wins. Tough pick: Oliveira.

Come back for the results, updates and animated gifs. What are your picks for the headline fight between Jones and Belfort? Does Stann get the KO? Who wins the bonuses?